methodology components
- Transaction visualization - We can draw conclusions about how an exchange works by tracing transactions and viewing trends in the transaction history. Comparing visualizations between exchanges highlights differences in their operation. We begin by executing a "buy" transaction on an exchange then use the Bitcoin blockchain to trace the transaction visually. Our team has created a visualization tool (Sankey visualization) to help with this process.
- Taint analysis - The “taint” of a Bitcoin transaction evaluates the association between an address and earlier transaction addresses. The more “‘taint” the stronger the link between the two addresses. We have performed a taint analysis on our Bitcoin exchange transactions and we provide an analysis and links to tools to perform such an analysis.
- Fulfillment Process - In attempting to make predictions about how an exchange will behave, it is important to understand how it works. We have researched two exchanges- Coinbase and Circle and understood how their fulfillment processes affect other metrics such as taint and pricing. Our findings are reported here.
- Pricing - To understand the inner workings of an exchange, it is important to understand how Bitcoin is priced for that exchange. We have taken our findings from our other methods, publicly disclosed information, and insights from customers (found on Reddit) to create our hypothesis of pricing.